Welcome back to the Funvee Tailgate BLOG, The THUNDERBLOG’s Weekly College Football Series. If you noticed the emphasis on BLOG, that is because this season we have the podcast tying in as well! Matty D and I put on our tinfoil hats running through different situations the next month might unfold leading into the College Football Playoff. We also go through the Cold Had Locks for this weekend in the NFL. You definitely need to check it out and here’s the iTunes link to go subscribe. This weekend is full of show-me games and games that could affect their eventual conference’s champion. LET’S FIIIIRE IT UP!
NOTE: I incorrectly pointed out the rankings (and one school) in 2014 and 2015 that made the playoff. Ohio State was #16 in the first CFP poll in 2014 and Oklahoma (NOT Michigan State) was at #15 in that year’s first CFP poll.
Last Week’s Record:
4-6-1 ATS, 43-56-1 in 2017. Slowly but surely improving. I did say that one of the Arizona schools would pull off the upset–I just picked the wrong one.
Another Friday, Another Memphis Matchup
Not really that much to analyze for #23 Memphis’ trip to 2-7 Tulsa. Their defense should be able to withhold Tulsa’s D’Angelo Brewer but Riley Ferguson will be the star once again. Memphis should win here and they’ll continue to cruise along to the AAC Title Game.
Earth-Shattering Saturday Ahead
The past few Saturdays we’ve seen upsets upon upsets and they changed the very fabric of the season. Those weekends came out of nowhere-not this one. With seven games between ranked opponents and others that will also have major implications on the remainder of the season, Week 10 is absolutely the most important week so far. #1 Georgia and #16 Mississippi State are MASSIVE favorites in both of their games and should win. Let’s take a look at the rest of the slate:
- #7 Penn State (-9.5) at #24 Michigan State at noon on FOX–Starting off with a BANG. Both schools look to bounce-back after tough losses last week. MSU’s offense should have a tough time getting it going against PSU while Saquon should continue his Heisman march. PSU wins and covers.
- #9 Wisconsin (-13.5) at Indiana at noon on ABC–Wisconsin had a slow start last week against Illinois but still pulled out the W. Indiana has been great at holding opponents at home but not closing them. Less than two TDs isn’t enough points for me to take the Hoosiers: Badgers win and cover.
- #14 Auburn (-15) at Texas A&M at noon on ESPN–Texas A&M has been better as of late but I don’t think they have the firepower to match Auburn, even if they’re at home. The Aggies’ best hope is that the Tigers are looking ahead to their matchup with Georgia next week. Auburn wins and doesn’t cover.
- Wake Forest (+14) at #3 Notre Dame at 3:30 on NBC–It is supposed to POUR in South Bend on Saturday. ND RB Josh Adams is going to steamroll the Deacons in the Irish’s one breather in the middle of the gauntlet. ND wins and covers.
- #4 Clemson (-8.5) at #20 NC State at 3:30 on ABC–IF NC State pulls this upset off, the ACC will be completely flip-turned upside down. The Tigers need to re-establish themselves as the road powerhouse they are and Dabo will get them there: Tigers win and cover.
- #6 Ohio State (-18.5) at Iowa at 3:30 on ESPN–OSU barely beat Penn State. Penn State barely got by Iowa at home. PSU should’ve won by more and I think the Buckeyes are starting to really find their rhythm. Both those are A LOT of points. Buckeyes win but don’t cover.
- #15 Iowa State (+2.5) at West Virginia at 3:30 on ESPN2–Iowa State has earned the right to move on up in the rankings-they’ve beaten two teams ranked in the top 10. The Cyclones’ run has strengthened Oklahoma’s record. A loss may not be as helpful for OU. West Virginia has come up short a few times this season. Not this time. Mountaineers win and cover.
- #21 Stanford (+2) at #25 Washington State at 3:30 on FOX–Bryce Love is a maybe for what should be a cold and rainy game. We saw how Stanford did without him and even if he does play, they’ll have a rough time against this Cougar squad. WSU wins and covers.
- #5 Oklahoma (+2.5) at #11 Oklahoma State at 4:00 on FS1–An elimination game for the CFP, practically. OK State has most of the statistical advantages here as well as home-field advantage. Baker Mayfield edges Mason Rudolph but the rest of the Cowboys edge the Sooners. OK State wins and covers.
- Texas (+7) at #8 TCU at 7:15 on ESPN–A weird line here. TCU falling shouldn’t force this. Easy pick, though. TCU wins and covers.
- #18 UCF (-15) at SMU at 7:15 on ESPN2–We’ve seen USF fall, will UCF? Unlikely here, but it will be close. The Stangs aren’t terrible and should make it fun, the UCF defense is solid, though. UCF wins but doesn’t cover.
- #19 LSU (+21.5) at #2 Alabama on CBS–This game has been ugly the past couple years. That said, despite LSU’s inconsistencies, the Tigers could make this one closer than 3 TDs. Derrius Guice is no Leonard Fournette but he’ll make a strong effort. Bama wins but doesn’t cover.
- #13 Virginia Tech (-1) at #10 Miami at 8:00 on ABC–Miami is going to be tested here. The Hurricane ground game should be strong but their air attack will be slowed down. The real difference will be Josh Jackson against the Miami defense–Jackson will go OFF. Va Tech wins and covers.
- Oregon (+16.5) at #12 Washington at 10:00 on FS1–The cold and rain in Seattle affect this Pac 12 North showdown enough for Oregon’s Royce Freeman to keep it close. Washington wins but doesn’t cover.
- #22 Arizona (+7) at #17 USC at 10:45 on ESPN–Here’s a line that is almost perfect. UA would likely win this game if it was in Tuscon, but in the Collesium, the Trojans win it outright. The shakiness of their play all season makes me think they’ll win by a field goal. USC wins but doesn’t cover.
Lehigh stays on the road this week to face Bucknell. The Bison have had a down season offensively so hopefully the Mountain Hawks’ bottom-ranked defense can have a good game. The Lehigh offense should may have their hands full with a tough Bucknell D. A win would put Lehigh back at the top of the Patriot League.Follow @geordo9