Numbers Never Lie: Take Two!

You can check out the AFC Playoff Picture right here

Probabilities are here again! Last week in the NFL was wild and this final week of the regular season could be just as crazy. There are a ton of different scenarios in the AFC, let’s get to it!

Quick Reminder of the Ground Rules:

NO TIES! (It makes it easier for all parties involved)

To get an initial probability of winning, I only took the team’s current winning percentage and divided by that number plus their opponent’s current winning percentage (EX: Seattle (.800) versus St. Louis (.467): probability Seattle Wins [p(SEA-W)]=(.800/1.267)=.6314 or 63.14%). So how the team is currently playing, key matchups, injuries, etc. will not affect the chances.

PLAYOFF BIRTHS (Division By Division):
* – Clinched Playoff Birth

NFC EAST:

The winner of the Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) @ Dallas Cowboys(8-7) wins the NFC East.
Probability the Eagles win: 52.96%
Probability the Cowboys win: 47.04%

NFC NORTH:

The winner of the Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) @ Chicago Bears (8-7) wins the NFC North.
Probability the Bears win: 51.60%
Probability the Packers win: 48.40%

NFC SOUTH:

Carolina Panthers* (11-4): Playing the Atlanta Falcons (4-11). They win the NFC South with: a win OR a Saints loss. Probability to clinch: 80.95%

New Orleans Saints (10-5, currently in 6th): Playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11). They clinch:
         A Playoff Birth with: a win OR a Cardinals loss. Probability to clinch: 86.38%
The NFC South with: a win AND a Panthers loss. Probability to clinch: 19.05%

NFC WEST:

Seattle Seahawks* (12-3): Playing the St. Louis Rams (7-8). They win the NFC West with: a win OR a 49ers loss. Probability to clinch: 80.71%

San Francisco 49ers* (11-4): Playing the Arizona Cardinals (10-5). They win the NFC West with: a win AND a Seahawks loss. Probability to clinch: 19.29%

Arizona Cardinals (10-5): Playing the San Francisco 49ers (11-4). They clinch a Playoff Birth with: a win AND a Saints loss. Probability to clinch: 13.62%

Just like I did with the AFC, here are the Seed-by-Seed Probabilities:

TOP SEED/HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE:

Seattle Seahawks (12-3, currently in 1st): Same scenario as winning the NFC West. Probability to clinch Home Field: 80.71%

Carolina Panthers (11-4): To clinch Home Field, they need: a win AND a Seahawks loss AND a 49ers win. Probability to clinch: 14.15%

San Francisco 49ers (11-4): To clinch Home Field, they need: a win AND a Seahawks loss AND a Panthers loss. Probability to clinch: 5.15%

TWO SEED (FIRST ROUND BYE):

New Orleans Saints (10-5): Same scenario as winning the NFC South. Probability to clinch #2 Seed: 19.05%

San Francisco 49ers (11-4): Same scenario as the Panthers getting Home Field. Probability to clinch #2 Seed: 14.15%

The Carolina Panthers (11-4, currently in 2nd) clinch the #2 in all other scenarios. Probability to clinch: 66.80%

THREE SEED (Will host the Six Seed next week):

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6, currently in 3rd): They clinch the #3 Seed with a win. Probability to clinch: 52.96%

Chicago Bears (8-7): To clinch the #3 Seed, they need: a win AND a Cowboys win. Probability to clinch: 24.27%

Dallas Cowboys (8-7): To clinch the #3 Seed, they need: a win AND a Packers win. Probability to clinch: 22.77%

FOUR SEED (Will host the Five Seed next week):

Chicago Bears (8-7, currently in 4th): To clinch the #4 Seed, they need: a win AND an Eagles win. Probability to clinch: 27.33%

Dallas Cowboys (8-7): To clinch the #4 Seed, they need: a win AND a Bears win. Probability to clinch: 24.27%

Green Bay Packers (7-7-1): They clinch the #4 Seed with a win. Probability to clinch: 48.40%

FIVE SEED (Will travel to the Four Seed next week):

Seattle Seahawks (12-3): To fall to the #5 Seed, they need: a loss AND a 49ers win. Probability to fall to the #5 Seed: 19.30%

New Orleans Saints (10-5): To clinch the #5 Seed, they need: a win AND a Panthers win AND a 49ers loss. Probability to clinch: 24.95%

The San Francisco 49ers (11-4, currently in 5th) clinch the #5 Seed in all other scenarios. Probability to clinch: 55.75%

SIX SEED (Will travel to the Three Seed next week):

Arizona Cardinals (10-5): Same scenario as clinching a playoff birth. Probability to clinch: 13.62%

San Francisco 49ers (11-4): To fall to the #6 Seed, they need: a loss AND a Saints win AND a Panthers win. Probability to clinch: 24.95%

Carolina Panthers (11-4): To fall to the #6 Seed, they need: a loss AND a Saints win. Probability to clinch: 19.05%

The New Orleans Saints (10-5, currently in 6th) clinch the #6 Seed in all other scenarios. Probability to clinch: 43.38%

Check out Matty D’s Cold Hard Locks to see our picks.

And here’s the AFC Playoff Picture link again.

LET’S GO EAGLES!!!