Numbers Never Lie: Take Two!

You can check out the NFC Playoff Picture right here

Probabilities are here again! Last week in the NFL was wild and this final week of the regular season could be just as crazy. There are a ton of different scenarios in the AFC, let’s get to it!

Quick Reminder of the Ground Rules:

NO TIES! (It makes it easier for all parties involved)

To get an initial probability of winning, I only took the team’s current winning percentage and divided by that number plus their opponent’s current winning percentage (EX: Denver (.800) versus Oakland (.267): probability Denver Wins [p(DEN-W)]=(.800/1.067)=.7498 or 74.98%). So how the team is currently playing, key matchups, injuries, etc. will not affect the chances.

 Considering only one playoff spot is available to be clinched in the AFC and every division as well as the five seed have been locked in, I will instead be looking into each Seeding Position:

TOP SEED/HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE:

Denver Broncos (12-3, currently in first): Playing the Oakland Raiders (4-11). To clinch Home Field, they need: a win OR a Patriots loss. Probability to clinch: 83.81%

New England Patriots (11-4): Playing the Buffalo Bills (6-9). To clinch Home Field, they need: a win AND a Broncos loss. Probability to clinch: 16.19%

TWO SEED (FIRST-ROUND BYE):

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5): Playing the Baltimore Ravens (8-7). To clinch the #2 Seed, they need: a win AND a Patriots loss. Probability to clinch: 19.62%

Denver Broncos (12-3): Same scenario as the Patriots getting Home Field. Probability to fall to the #2 Seed: 16.19%

Indianapolis Colts (10-5): Playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11). To clinch the #2 Seed they need: a win AND a Patriots loss AND a Bengals loss. Probability to clinch: 11.19%

The New England Patriots (10-4, currently in 2nd) clinch the #2 Seed in all other scenarios. Probability to clinch: 53.00%

THREE SEED (Will host the Six Seed next week):

Indianapolis Colts (10-5): To clinch the #3 Seed, they need: a win AND EITHER a Patriots loss OR a Bengals loss. Probability to clinch: 34.53%

New England Patriots (11-4): To fall to the #3 Seed, they need: a loss AND EITHER a Colts win OR a Bengals win. Probability to fall to #3: 16.80%

The Cincinnati Bengals (10-5, currently in 3rd) clinch the #3 Seed in all other scenarios. Probability to clinch: 48.67%

FOUR SEED (Will host the Kansas City Chiefs next week):

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5): To fall to the #4 Seed, they need: to loss AND a Colts win. Probability to fall to #4: 31.71%

New England Patriots (11-4): To fall to the #4 Seed, they need: to loss AND a Colts win AND a Bengals win. Probability to fall to #4: 14.01%

The Indianapolis Colts (10-5, currently in 4th) clinch the #4 Seed in all other scenarios. Probability to clinch: 54.28%

FIVE SEED: Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) will travel to Four Seed next week

SIX SEED (Will travel to #3 Seed next week):

Miami Dolphins (8-7, currently in sixth): Playing the New York Jets (7-8). To clinch the #6 Seed, they need EITHER: a win AND a Ravens loss OR a win AND a Chargers win. Probability to clinch: 39.59%

Baltimore Ravens (8-7): Playing the Cincinnati Bengals (10-5). To clinch the #6 Seed, they need EITHER: a win AND a Chargers loss OR a win AND a Dolphins loss OR losses by the Dolphins, Chargers, and Steelers. Probability to clinch: 39.92%

San Diego Chargers (8-7): Playing the Kansas City Chiefs (11-4). To clinch the #6 Seed, they need: a win AND a Dolphins loss AND a Ravens loss. Probability to clinch: 9.56%

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8): Playing the Cleveland Browns (4-11). To clinch the #6 Seed, they need: a win AND a Ravens loss AND a Dolphins loss AND a Chargers loss. Probability to clinch: 10.93%

Check out Matty D’s Cold Hard Locks to see our picks.

And here’s the NFC Playoff Picture link again.